Don't get me wrong, I think it's wonderful that the people are demanding some real democracy: with any luck, in time that might lead them in the direction of more freedom, which would be a tremendous blessing.
But, when I see the people who are likely to benefit, it's a whole other story, as they say. Mousavi is a moderate, but only by comparison to the alternatives: by any external measure, he's still a mullah, repressive & torture-happy, just a bit less bat-shit crazy when it comes to external affairs, and better trained in buttering up foreign opinion. Ayatollah Montazeri, who appears to be trying to stir things up from within the religious power structure, is as thorough-going a bloodstained tyrant as Khomeini ever was, and his ally Rafsanjani is (merely) a plutocrat who wants better access to western luxuries, it seems.
And of course the current bunch, Ahmadinejad & co, are quite quite crazy.
Still, I suppose someone less elitist and more actually democratic might emerge from the scrum, if it goes long enough - look at how the French revolution evolved.
Of course, the real problem is, there's no real signs of disaffection in the police/military, which is really the sine-qua-non for a successful modern revolution - look at the Ukraine, Russia, & most of East Europe at one point or another.
And look at China after Tiananmen Square for what happens when there isn't a disaffected power structure. Uggh.
Still, so far, the powers that be don't seem to have exerted their military power to suppress the protests, so it's impossible to say for sure - maybe there's more disaffection than is obvious to us, or maybe the Supreme Leader (Khamenei) is losing his taste for bloodshed: and faltering determination at the top is just as lethal as disaffection in the military (and we're back to Louis XVI & the French Revolution again).
Of course the problem with that is, look how the French revolution evolved - first more democratic, then democratic tyranny, then massive bloodshed, then reaction into military tyranny. Oh goodie, just what we need in the middle east, another tyranny looking to foreign wars to curb the popular dissent.
Maybe I'm just being too pessimistic: after all, we've been blessed by quite a few miraculous liberations in the last quarter century, even if we totally squandered the possibilities of some of them (hello, Russia & Bill Clinton, I'm looking at y'all) - when I consider the freedom and hope in eastern Germany, and the liberation of Poland, Hungary, Czech, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Roumania, Bulgaria, and - most miraculously - the Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which I never thought would be pried out from Russia's hands, there must be some cause for hope. So maybe, maybe, maybe, it'll come out right, somehow.
[Heartrending Update]
From NIAC, a translation of a blog post:
"I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed. I'm listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow! There are a few great movie scenes that I also have to see. I should drop by the library, too. It's worth to read the poems of Forough and Shamloo again. All family pictures have to be reviewed, too. I have to call my friends as well to say goodbye. All I have are two bookshelves which I told my family who should receive them. I'm two units away from getting my bachelors degree but who cares about that. My mind is very chaotic. I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so they know we were not just emotional and under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mongols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow's children..."
* * * * * * * * * * *
The one thing about the whole situation that I find completely outrageous, is the rank and rancid Republicans here, criticizing Obama for not speaking out strongly in favour of the protestors, as - how did one put it last night? - 'representative of the US, the symbol of liberty and fairness in the world.' How stupid can you be? Doesn't he get it that the US is not a symbol of liberty, or of anything but rank oppression, in the Middle East?
And of course he does get it, he's just playing this for domestic political advantage - he's one of the many demented fools that - until last week - were urging the bombing of Iran in order to eliminate it's possible future nuclear facilities (despite Pentagon planners pointing out that this is impossible, short of a prolonged nuclear barrage over the bulk of Iran, which would also, yanno, destroy all its oilfields).
It's one thing I do find quite alarming, that the right here view everything solely through the prism of domestic advantage, and are so bitterly furious at losing power, as though they had a divine right to it, that they will resort to any craziness to criticize the current administration. It is a common occurrence to hear Obama reviled as a tyrant by radio talkback hosts here, and much worse than that - and that's even if you steer clear of the real crazies, who claim he's a muslim, or he isn't an american, or ... eh.
I think being in Arkansas, and immured in the middle of these people, is having a detrimental effect on our tempers, if nothing else.
Anyway, back to it - more next week
No comments:
Post a Comment